Florida’s existing home, condo sales rise in April 2009ORLANDO, Fla. – May 27, 2009 – Florida’s existing home sales rose in April – the eighth consecutive month that sales activity increased in the year-to-year comparison, according to the latest housing data released by the Florida Association of Realtors® (FAR). April’s statewide sales showed gains over the previous month’s sales level in both the existing home and existing condominium markets.
Existing home sales rose 18 percent last month with a total of 13,111 homes sold statewide compared to 11,133 homes sold in April 2008, according to FAR. April’s statewide existing home sales were slightly higher than statewide activity in March.
Florida Realtors also reported a 21 percent rise in statewide sales of existing condos in April; existing condo sales last month increased 6.2 percent over the total units sold in March.Fourteen of Florida’s metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) reported increased existing-home sales in April and 11 MSAs also showed gains in condo sales. A majority of the state’s MSAs have reported increased sales for 10 consecutive months.
Florida’s median sales price for existing homes last month was $138,500; a year ago, it was $199,500 for a 31 percent decrease. Housing industry analysts with the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) note, however, a significant downward distortion in the current median price due to many discounted sales, including a large number of foreclosures. The median is the midpoint; half the homes sold for more, half for less.
The national median sales price for existing single-family homes in March 2009 was $174,900, down 11.5 percent from a year earlier, according to NAR. In California, the statewide median resales price was $253,040 in March; in Massachusetts, it was $255,000; in Maryland, it was $264,302; and in New York, it was $222,500.
According to NAR’s latest housing industry outlook, it could take a few months for the housing market to gain momentum, though there are signs of stabilization. “The share of lower priced home sales has trended up, indicating a return of many first-time buyers,” says NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Buyer traffic has been rising, and real estate offices are getting phone inquires about the tax credit. By early summer we should be seeing a positive impact on home sales from record-low mortgage interest rates in addition to the stimulus provisions.”
In Florida’s year-to-year comparison for condos, 4,660 units sold statewide compared to 3,862 units in April 2008 for a 21 percent increase. The statewide existing condo median sales price last month was $106,600; in April 2008 it was $178,900 for a 40 percent decrease. In the latest data available at press time, NAR reported the national median existing condo price was $177,600 in March 2009.
Interest rates for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.81 percent last month, down significantly from the average rate of 5.92 percent in April 2008, according to Freddie Mac. FAR’s sales figures reflect closings, which typically occur 30 to 90 days after sales contracts are written.
Among the state’s smaller markets, the Pensacola MSA reported a total of 316 homes sold in April compared to 272 homes a year ago for a 16 percent increase. The existing home median sales price was $143,300; a year ago, it was $157,400 for a 9 percent decrease. In the year-to-year comparison for the existing condo market, 48 units sold in the MSA last month, up 9 percent compared to 44 condos sold the previous April. The market’s existing condo median price remained level at $250,000.
© 2009 FLORIDA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
Thursday, May 28, 2009
Tuesday, May 12, 2009
Recession Over? Housing Market Showing Signs of Life
If you want a bone to pick--or an economic argument to have--it should be about when the current recession actually began. The National Bureau of Economic Research, the U.S.'s semi-official recession arbiter, says it started in December 2007. But real gross domestic product grew at a 1% annual rate from then through August 2008. That doesn't look like a recession to us.
Nonetheless, when Lehman Brothers collapsed and the $700-billion TARP plan was proposed, a very rare "panic" ensued. Monetary velocity collapsed. From September 2008 through March 2009, the economy shrank at a rate of 5.5%. That's why we think the recession started in September 2008, not in December 2007.
Once the "real" recession started--the one that began in September--we consistently forecast it would be over by mid-2009, earlier than many (including the Federal Reserve) predicted. Now it looks like our V-shaped recovery is underway. When the NBER eventually gets around to declaring the recession end date, we think it will be May 2009.
New claims for unemployment insurance are probably the very best single indicator of the end of a recession. The monthly average for claims normally peaks one or two months before the economy bottoms--and it appears to have peaked in March, at 658,000, versus April's 635,000.
Also, given that the September recession was marked by consumer spending falling off a cliff, we look at this measure to signal a rebound. Consumer spending grew at a 2.2% annual rate in the first quarter, and it looks set to rise again in the second quarter. Meanwhile, both major measures of consumer confidence (from The Conference Board and University of Michigan) shot upward in April.
The housing market is also showing nascent signs of life. New home sales bottomed in January at a 331,000 annual rate, but the pace of sales in February/March averaged 357,000. After falling 80% from January 2006 to January 2009, the rate of construction of single-family homes has remained essentially unchanged for the past two months, although (thankfully) it is at a level where builders are still rapidly cutting into excess inventories. In all likelihood, a bottom has been reached for both home sales and housing starts.
On the trade front, companies are increasingly willing to do business across borders. Inbound and outbound container traffic is up, at both the port of Los Angeles and the port of Long Beach. This is also a signal that credit conditions are easing, as international trade tends to be more credit-sensitive than domestic commerce.
Other signs of a rebound in monetary velocity can be found in prices. Consumer prices fell at a 12.4% annual rate in the last three months of 2008, the fastest decline since the Great Depression. In the first three months of 2009, however, prices are up at a 2.2% annual rate.
Meanwhile, commodity prices bottomed in February, signaling that the economy has turned a corner. In addition, Treasury bond yields are on the rise despite direct purchases by the Federal Reserve--an indicator that real interest rates have bottomed.
Add to all these signs April's month-to-month jump in the ISM Manufacturing Index--the second largest in the last decade--and recent sharp increases in the Chicago PMI, the Philadelphia Fed Index and the Richmond Fed Index. All show the manufacturing recession is rapidly losing steam.
The end of the recession does not mean we won't lose more jobs; employment is always a lagging indicator. And there will be more defaults, foreclosures and financial market problems too. But none of these are leading indicators.
In our view, there are no more shoes to drop.
Source: Forbes.com
The Recession Is Over
Brian S. Wesbury and Robert Stein 05.05.09, 12:00 AM ET
Nonetheless, when Lehman Brothers collapsed and the $700-billion TARP plan was proposed, a very rare "panic" ensued. Monetary velocity collapsed. From September 2008 through March 2009, the economy shrank at a rate of 5.5%. That's why we think the recession started in September 2008, not in December 2007.
Once the "real" recession started--the one that began in September--we consistently forecast it would be over by mid-2009, earlier than many (including the Federal Reserve) predicted. Now it looks like our V-shaped recovery is underway. When the NBER eventually gets around to declaring the recession end date, we think it will be May 2009.
New claims for unemployment insurance are probably the very best single indicator of the end of a recession. The monthly average for claims normally peaks one or two months before the economy bottoms--and it appears to have peaked in March, at 658,000, versus April's 635,000.
Also, given that the September recession was marked by consumer spending falling off a cliff, we look at this measure to signal a rebound. Consumer spending grew at a 2.2% annual rate in the first quarter, and it looks set to rise again in the second quarter. Meanwhile, both major measures of consumer confidence (from The Conference Board and University of Michigan) shot upward in April.
The housing market is also showing nascent signs of life. New home sales bottomed in January at a 331,000 annual rate, but the pace of sales in February/March averaged 357,000. After falling 80% from January 2006 to January 2009, the rate of construction of single-family homes has remained essentially unchanged for the past two months, although (thankfully) it is at a level where builders are still rapidly cutting into excess inventories. In all likelihood, a bottom has been reached for both home sales and housing starts.
On the trade front, companies are increasingly willing to do business across borders. Inbound and outbound container traffic is up, at both the port of Los Angeles and the port of Long Beach. This is also a signal that credit conditions are easing, as international trade tends to be more credit-sensitive than domestic commerce.
Other signs of a rebound in monetary velocity can be found in prices. Consumer prices fell at a 12.4% annual rate in the last three months of 2008, the fastest decline since the Great Depression. In the first three months of 2009, however, prices are up at a 2.2% annual rate.
Meanwhile, commodity prices bottomed in February, signaling that the economy has turned a corner. In addition, Treasury bond yields are on the rise despite direct purchases by the Federal Reserve--an indicator that real interest rates have bottomed.
Add to all these signs April's month-to-month jump in the ISM Manufacturing Index--the second largest in the last decade--and recent sharp increases in the Chicago PMI, the Philadelphia Fed Index and the Richmond Fed Index. All show the manufacturing recession is rapidly losing steam.
The end of the recession does not mean we won't lose more jobs; employment is always a lagging indicator. And there will be more defaults, foreclosures and financial market problems too. But none of these are leading indicators.
In our view, there are no more shoes to drop.
Source: Forbes.com
The Recession Is Over
Brian S. Wesbury and Robert Stein 05.05.09, 12:00 AM ET
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
